has 4E killed 3rd party Dnd?

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Elton Robb		#81	[-]
Posts: 1347 (03/30/09 21:06:58) Necromancer Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	One or two of Mongoose's stuff does have good ideas. But it's like looking for pearls in mud. ****** My Portfolio My Renderosity Gallery. The Known Lands
Mr Baron	5th ed	#82	[-]
Posts: 175 (03/30/09 23:03:43) Ghast Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	I suspect that 4th ed will end up looking a lot like 2ed with a rapid drop of in sales, and I am not sure that it will make it 8-10 years. I hope I am wrong, but as Clark mentions, the D&D segment is getting highly fragmented, and I think it will continue to fragment. 3rd ed could well end up killing 4th ed. With that said, I still believe that no matter what happens with 4th ed, WotC and the D&D brand can rebound strongly with a well planned out 5th ed launch. IMO, 5th ed needs to take a step back to its roots in terms of play experience, embrace the total fan base - both old players and new players, and include a plan for 3PP right from the start. With the 4th ed roll out, it felt like the GSL was an after thought, rather than an important part of a comprehensive launch strategy. Very disappointing. Killer DM #61 http://grumblingrognard.blogspot.com/ (game blog) http://mrbaron-bps.livejournal.com/ (misc stuff blog)
Snoring Rock		#83	[-]
Posts: 1003 (03/31/09 03:34:57) Eternally Unspanked Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	Mr Baron wrote: I suspect that 4th ed will end up looking a lot like 2ed with a rapid drop of in sales, and I am not sure that it will make it 8-10 years. I hope I am wrong, but as Clark mentions, the D&D segment is getting highly fragmented, and I think it will continue to fragment. 3rd ed could well end up killing 4th ed. With that said, I still believe that no matter what happens with 4th ed, WotC and the D&D brand can rebound strongly with a well planned out 5th ed launch. IMO, 5th ed needs to take a step back to its roots in terms of play experience, embrace the total fan base - both old players and new players, and include a plan for 3PP right from the start. With the 4th ed roll out, it felt like the GSL was an after thought, rather than an important part of a comprehensive launch strategy. Very disappointing. I might just tweek what you have to say here a little; for the most part I agree. You may be right, but I think if "ever" there is a 5e it will be under new ownership. In this case, the contolling company will not be impressed unless sales are at a certain level. I dont know what Hasbro defines as successful here. As for the GSL.....I think the GSL had the desired effect of trapping the 3pp's just as planned. But, it went to far and caused splinters. I think the GSL was very well thought out and executed. It was successful in eliminating competition, but it back-fired.
DaveMage		#84	[-]
Posts: 2178 (03/31/09 04:29:14) Wilderlands Pathfinder Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	5E will be a daunting challenge indeed (for any company). 4E has shown that WotC is willing to make a D&D game that is not based so much on the traditions of the game, but rather (mostly) goes in a new direction. I would not expect them to embrace the past to lure back the graying segment that has grown dissatisfied with them. Rather, I expect they would continue to refine the game to appeal to the 12-24 year-old market segment (teens and college students) of the time. I think the only way the traditional population of D&D will be served with 5E is through 3PPs, unless a different (read: smaller) company is making 5E.
Elodan		#85	[-]
Posts: 86 (03/31/09 06:10:41) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	Mr Baron wrote: I suspect that 4th ed will end up looking a lot like 2ed with a rapid drop of in sales, and I am not sure that it will make it 8-10 years. I hope I am wrong, but as Clark mentions, the D&D segment is getting highly fragmented, and I think it will continue to fragment. 3rd ed could well end up killing 4th ed. ... I don't think the plan is to have the edition last 8 - 10 years. There may have been roughly 10 year gaps between the editions from 1st to 3rd but as they say in finance, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Since we know that 3.5 was planned, I think we're going to see smaller edition windows; more like 5 years. The release of core books every year will, in theory, keep sales relatively strong but eventually they'll need to go back to the drawing board. I expect 5E in 2012/2013 (I can't see WotC stretching the eight power sources out much beyond that). As for 3PP, I agree with those who think 3.5 pretty much killed them. Personally, I would not have pushed my group into trying 4E if it weren't for Clark and his 4E plans. I most likely won't run 4E until there are some Necro adventures out there (Goodman is too hit or miss and KotS turned me off WotC adventures). If I don't DM 4E, then there's no reason for me to pick up MM2, DMG2, etc. Large chance of death, small chance of success, what are we waiting for!
mahogani		#86	[-]
Posts: 8 (03/31/09 06:45:04) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	I think the Character Builder is worth it. It makes creating NPC's a snap, it even has an auto build feature if you need one in a hurry.
Deepcut		#87	[-]
Posts: 5031 (03/31/09 08:06:33) Pimp of the Planes Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	I do not know if there is enough CF for another publisher to buy and run D&D like it has to be run in order to survive. D&D as a community is not in growth mode. And every 3 years it requires a rewrite to boost re-buying, which requires reinvestent. The key is 3rd party support, so that enough material will be created to build demand for the core rule books/DDI/miniatures/movie licenses/etc. A vibrant community of gamers is what is required for value to build. The online + tabletop version of gaming was not handled as well as it should have been, so companies like Blizzard have taken over the fantasy mantle with WoW. Still online play like OpenRPG or Map. and the potential of DDI are crucial to D&Ds future. The reason I personally like 3rd party material is that it gets me away from the RPGI short-mod format which just gets to be lame after awhile. Sure there is a story-arc, but yawn the fun is in the gameplay not the arc. The arc is the ultimate in fluffy context, not sufficient in and of itself to justify medeocre mods. I like the long-format mods that really churn things up. Long format is definitely old school cool. "...In ancient times, hundreds of years before the dawn of history, an ancient race of people... the Druids. No one knows who they were or what they were doing... "
Orcus		#88	[-]
Posts: 5240 (03/31/09 08:37:05) Demon Lord Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	Snoring Rock wrote: I think the GSL was very well thought out and executed. It was successful in eliminating competition, but it back-fired. Listen, I was a part of the process. I have the inside track on this. I know it is fun to believe that there was some grand conspiracy. There wasnt. There was resistance to 3Ps. There were multiple voices and no clear direction which led to the GSL that we all got at first. The GSL was the perfect example of the old adage that "a horse by committe is a camel." The thing they designed tried to serve lots of masters and wound up serving none. Now, are there those at Wizards who are glad it slowed down 3Ps, probably. But this is hardly a grand scheme. Its too bungled to have been a scheme.
Keeper of the Dark Realms		#89	[-]
Posts: 4513 (03/31/09 09:10:54) Master of Rules and Sinister Beasts Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	Mr Baron wrote: I suspect that 4th ed will end up looking a lot like 2ed with a rapid drop of in sales, and I am not sure that it will make it 8-10 years. I hope I am wrong, but as Clark mentions, the D&D segment is getting highly fragmented, and I think it will continue to fragment. 3rd ed could well end up killing 4th ed. Im with ya on this. I dont know about 3e killing 4e, especially at the rate WotC is pounding out books...but....the audience is definitely fragmented, and appears to be fragmenting a little more each day (including peeps moving away from D&D altogether, which is one of the issues I believe TSR had with 2e back in the day) Scott =============== Necromancer Games www.necromancergames.com
Drkfathr1		#90	[-]
Posts: 3 (03/31/09 11:59:13) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	yeah, I have to say, I've gotten a very strong 2E vibe with the business/marketing plan of 4E so far. Not a good sign in my opinion.
Snoring Rock		#91	[-]
Posts: 1004 (03/31/09 12:50:03) Eternally Unspanked Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	Orcus wrote: Snoring Rock wrote: I think the GSL was very well thought out and executed. It was successful in eliminating competition, but it back-fired. Listen, I was a part of the process. I have the inside track on this. I know it is fun to believe that there was some grand conspiracy. There wasnt. There was resistance to 3Ps. There were multiple voices and no clear direction which led to the GSL that we all got at first. The GSL was the perfect example of the old adage that "a horse by committe is a camel." The thing they designed tried to serve lots of masters and wound up serving none. Now, are there those at Wizards who are glad it slowed down 3Ps, probably. But this is hardly a grand scheme. Its too bungled to have been a scheme. Indeed, I will concede that the grand "vast right-wing conspiracy" did not exist....but the end was the same. That can no longer be argued. You have said it yourself. Two big strikes out of the gate, one; no 3PP's, and two; unfortunate direction for the game. But all of this has already been said before the release. So here we are. I may stand alone here, and that's ok with me, but just how much support are you throwing at this now Clark? Will it be just adventures? To what extent? You have the regulars here, but what is the market for 3pp's material for 4e? The whole thing is so splintered now. I will buy Pathfinder but have no use for 4e. Others here have no use for Pathfinder and then again there are those who will buy both or neither. Is there enough market to make it worth while now that no one market is all that big?
JoeGKushner		#92	[-]
Posts: 7414 (03/31/09 13:19:34) Demi Lich Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	cnath wrote: JoeGKushner wrote: Oh good. Fast Forward Entertainment. They had some great ideas. They had a hardcover with a spiral bound book of mini-encounters but it was so terribly written. For example, there's an encounter with a barbarian whose hiding yet runs out to attack the party with something like a 3K gem in his left boot or something. Their Dungeon World series was also solid on idea but weak on execution. yeah, I rather liked the spiral bound idea so it would lay flat... then I read the reviews... FFE also being the company if I remember right, whose owners ranted about how people shouldn't be allowed to review books unless they were published authors... 3PP's are a small part of the market, no question, they just happen to be a portion of the market that I'm rather a fan of. Me too. I have a ton of stuff that was never really touched by WoTC. Iron Kingdoms for example. Eberron is different than standard, but it don't go the Steampunk rotue as opposed to Magi-Punk/MagicPunk rotue. Completely different. Atlas did a ton of stuff that works great. Necromancer has some great adventurers. Heck, I even own the first two completely Pathfinder adventure paths. But after never having played them because I just came out as a player of the Savage Tide and have been a player in a Mutants and Mastermind campaign and am running a 4e adventure... well, I'll probably never go back to 3e. To me, 3e is awesome. But it's stupid at the same time. Anything it can do, I can do with Hero with 1 book. I remember on Monte's board someone posting about like fifteen different books he used to make some weird character and thinking... yup, that's what 3e became. e-bay Sales Updated 3/24/2009: , Miniatures, Ultramodern Firearms, The Hunt d20 setting, Legends of Excalibur d20 setting, Legends of the Samurai d20 setting, Midnight books, 4e Points of Light, and more!
Orcus		#93	[-]
Posts: 5242 (04/01/09 00:02:20) Demon Lord Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	Snoring Rock wrote: but just how much support are you throwing at this now Clark? Will it be just adventures? To what extent? You have the regulars here, but what is the market for 3pp's material for 4e? The whole thing is so splintered now. I will buy Pathfinder but have no use for 4e. Others here have no use for Pathfinder and then again there are those who will buy both or neither. Is there enough market to make it worth while now that no one market is all that big? I dont know that answer to your question and it is a fair one. I will do adventures. How many, I dont know. We plan to do Tome 4E. When I dont know. Here's the problem: when the GSL bombed, everyone took concepts off the table. And while I remained hopeful for a revised GSL I sure wasnt putting time and money into being ready for one when it arrived. And now here it is, and just now am I starting to ramp up for it. Its not like 3E where way ahead of time Ryan gave permission to all us potential publishers so we could have stuff ready at launch even before the license was finalized for goodness sake. Talk about being on the ball and understanding product support. So we are just now gearing up. And its requiring me to predict the future. I'll likely start out with a Monte-esque strategy and sell pdfs of anticipated print products first.
Orcus		#94	[-]
Posts: 5243 (04/01/09 00:09:18) Demon Lord Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	I think I finally found an analogy (not the best, sure) that helps illustrate how I disagree with Joe's concept that you can measure 4Es success just by whetehr or not the 4E PHB2 is selling well. Think about console games. Lets say you had the ZBox. And Zony, the company that makes the ZBox decided not to let other people make games for the ZBox at launch and only let its own people do it. Would the ZBox sell? Yes. Would the Zony games for the ZBox sell? Of course. But is the ZBox capturing all the gamers it could? No. And how long will that appeal last? Not as long as it could or should, which means there will be a new ZBox sooner than necessary and ZBox players will drift to other systems. Just look at modern times to see what I mean. When you have 3Ps making games for your console, you attract more gamers, sell more boxes and yoru system is viable longer becuase people have more options. Of course, this analogy is imperfect for two big reasons: 1. WotC doesnt have any real competition. There is no PS2 to their XBox. 2. Technology dictates changes in console gaming externally. Pen and Paper gaming isnt driven by an external technology in the same way (it is to some degree, but not nearly as fast as console game. There is no video card that Wizards has to replace to maintain cutting age next gen status). But I hope that illustrates how support, even if not on the same level of official support, creates a longer life for a product and keeps people playing. Because if you dont do that, regardless of sales, they will simply turn away. When 3E ended, just about everyone was still playing 3E. The level of defection from 3E at the end of 3E was less than the level of defection from 4E when Wizards announced it. Think about that.
Snoring Rock		#95	[-]
Posts: 1005 (04/01/09 03:14:55) Eternally Unspanked Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	Orcus wrote: Here's the problem: when the GSL bombed, everyone took concepts off the table. And while I remained hopeful for a revised GSL I sure wasnt putting time and money into being ready for one when it arrived. And now here it is, and just now am I starting to ramp up for it. Its not like 3E where way ahead of time Ryan gave permission to all us potential publishers so we could have stuff ready at launch even before the license was finalized for goodness sake. Talk about being on the ball and understanding product support. So we are just now gearing up. And its requiring me to predict the future. I'll likely start out with a Monte-esque strategy and sell pdfs of anticipated print products first. From my perspective the "taking of concepts off the table" is the most damaging, both to 4e and to Pathfinder and what-ever iteration of the game you have. The timing again is pretty raw. You cant do anything in time for GenCon. This puts more time between you and the product sales. Using your ZBox example; other game systems are going to take a bite over time. Clark, I dont envy your position on this one. I wish you luck, and better yet, great success. Have you started any thing for 5e?
Dark Mistress		#96	[-]
Posts: 1786 (04/01/09 03:15:52) Dominatrix Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	I agree about 3pp being important. I know that is what keep my group playing it and going back to it still now from time to time. With 2e we stopped from about 91 till 3e came out, gave it a try. Had fun but the 3pp is what keep us playing. We may not be your normal gamers though and I doubt we are the target group for WotC either. Since we are all in our 30's or older, except me. I just turned 29 again. As for the rest, I mentioned in this thread or another. That I think it would be safest for necro to make a few new products and test the market and see. The biggest problem right now is, is their a big market for 3pp stuff for 4e? I mean something I have been wondering is this. It seems the people that most liked 3pp stuff are the ones least happy with 4e and the ones that are sticking to 3e, moving on to other stuff or going with pathfinder. So I wonder if the 3pp market is going to be even smaller per person than it was for 3e regardless of the number of people. In other words if 1 in 10 bought 3pp stuff in 3e, might it be smaller and more like 1 in 20 or 30 now? Anyways just a random thought in my sleep deprived state at the moment. Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety. Benjamin Franklin For MSG - I am sure you can teach a monkey to scratch his butt, just tell him to watch you. After a couple of hours he should be a master at it.
Snoring Rock		#97	[-]
Posts: 1006 (04/01/09 03:26:08) Eternally Unspanked Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	Dark Mistress wrote: I agree about 3pp being important. I know that is what keep my group playing it and going back to it still now from time to time. With 2e we stopped from about 91 till 3e came out, gave it a try. Had fun but the 3pp is what keep us playing. We may not be your normal gamers though and I doubt we are the target group for WotC either. Since we are all in our 30's or older, except me. I just turned 29 again. As for the rest, I mentioned in this thread or another. That I think it would be safest for necro to make a few new products and test the market and see. The biggest problem right now is, is their a big market for 3pp stuff for 4e? I mean something I have been wondering is this. It seems the people that most liked 3pp stuff are the ones least happy with 4e and the ones that are sticking to 3e, moving on to other stuff or going with pathfinder. So I wonder if the 3pp market is going to be even smaller per person than it was for 3e regardless of the number of people. In other words if 1 in 10 bought 3pp stuff in 3e, might it be smaller and more like 1 in 20 or 30 now? Anyways just a random thought in my sleep deprived state at the moment. DM you make a valid point about the 1/10 and 1/20 3pp's support ratio. I would be interested in seeing what it is. I add to that, that 4e plays very nicely as a stand-alone "battle" game. As a long-standing campaign back-bone, I am not so sure, I cant say. Marketing to 4e might be better done with an entirely new approach to the game. I think smaller; one to two encounter-like advantures would appeal more to that game and thos who really enjoy it. You and I have local stores here, and they report that it is a great "encounters" game. I would agree after my play test. Not just the way it plays as a combat game, but also, it may play better for the "new" audience it has. So, will that kind of support float well with old-schoolers?
DaveMage		#98	[-]
Posts: 2180 (04/01/09 04:15:08) Wilderlands Pathfinder Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	Orcus wrote: Of course, this analogy is imperfect for two big reasons: 1. WotC doesnt have any real competition. Wizards may not have competition with any one system/company, but I'd say the argument can be made that WotC does have competetion from the rest of the industry. In orther words, "other systems in total" is probably competition. And you could probably throw in RPG attrition as well. If there are fewer players that play tabletop RPGs, that hurts the industry leader more than anyone else.
Mithriltooth		#99	[-]
Posts: 567 (04/01/09 05:05:28) Spectre Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	DaveMage wrote: Orcus wrote: Of course, this analogy is imperfect for two big reasons: 1. WotC doesnt have any real competition. Wizards may not have competition with any one system/company, but I'd say the argument can be made that WotC does have competetion from the rest of the industry. In orther words, "other systems in total" is probably competition. IMHO (<--- note) with a few exceptions, most of the better designers are freelancing or at 3PPs anyway. That said, 3PPs are very important to keep the hobby alive in general, and i think the short term goals of WotC with the initial GSL has hurt the hobby more than having any competition would have. Penny-wise and pound foolish as they say. We'll see how they handle the next edition if it even gets that far. I dont thing theres too much merit in an "RPG Attrition" as its always been more or less a niche hobby. ______________________________________________________ Current NG stuff owned... CoF, ToA, MM, VoLK, HotRM, tGC, DaD, VaL, LCoB, TaD, SoDF, FotWK, CoS, DoL a.k.a. Sunderstone
Mr Baron	Its too bungled to have been a scheme.	#100	[-]
Posts: 178 (04/01/09 05:52:17) Ghast Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	Orcus wrote: Its too bungled to have been a scheme. This is one of the funnier things I have read today. Killer DM #61 http://grumblingrognard.blogspot.com/ (game blog) http://mrbaron-bps.livejournal.com/ (misc stuff blog)

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